Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.744133 0.866280 1.001775 1.163173 1.350168 1.559987 1.813301
2025-01-26 0.549697 0.713936 0.916340 1.183921 1.528280 1.956542 2.529822
2025-02-02 0.467294 0.655685 0.905730 1.261450 1.754273 2.412928 3.360598
2025-02-09 0.400421 0.598448 0.877665 1.299330 1.919589 2.798392 4.138922
2025-02-16 0.345712 0.545770 0.843032 1.315779 2.048147 3.139404 4.890058
2025-02-23 0.299554 0.496702 0.803715 1.315100 2.144846 3.438024 5.607929
2025-03-02 0.260348 0.451567 0.762422 1.302603 2.216925 3.701550 6.296846
2025-03-09 0.230697 0.417181 0.732642 1.302731 2.306116 3.998177 7.069956
2025-03-16 0.198460 0.373318 0.680436 1.256355 2.308023 4.145819 7.602877
2025-03-23 0.190467 0.371558 0.700834 1.339705 2.546543 4.725705 8.960980
2025-03-30 0.167167 0.337856 0.658847 1.302605 2.559346 4.901821 9.600889
2025-04-06 0.146049 0.305369 0.614807 1.255391 2.545922 5.025509 10.152323
2025-04-13 0.128061 0.277114 0.576209 1.215532 2.545090 5.179026 10.793440
2025-04-20 0.118568 0.265220 0.568899 1.238376 2.673885 5.602668 12.031160
2025-04-27 0.115398 0.266362 0.588421 1.319465 2.932969 6.317694 13.955260
2025-05-04 0.108813 0.258984 0.588793 1.359065 3.107716 6.876557 15.612792
2025-05-11 0.101121 0.247966 0.579712 1.376259 3.234710 7.346755 17.130547
2025-05-18 0.092976 0.234707 0.563808 1.375550 3.320401 7.734573 18.506245
2025-05-25 0.084891 0.220456 0.543785 1.362487 3.375421 8.058779 19.772162
2025-06-01 0.078459 0.209426 0.530002 1.362620 3.461663 8.463831 21.275817
2025-06-08 0.069964 0.191920 0.498237 1.314141 3.422772 8.568611 22.063019
2025-06-15 0.069391 0.195217 0.518869 1.401269 3.734629 9.555036 25.153822
2025-06-22 0.062627 0.180827 0.492406 1.362488 3.718111 9.727760 26.197103